India’s Climate Tipping Point: Why Climate Interventions Can’t Wait

India, home to over 1.4 billion people, is standing at the edge of a climate precipice. With its geography spanning coastlines, deserts, forests, and the towering Himalayas, India is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations – and the crisis is accelerating. From searing heatwaves and vanishing glaciers to water stress and rising seas, climate change is no longer a distant threat. It is here, now, and escalating. What happens in India will reverberate across South Asia and the world.

At the Healthy Climate Initiative (HCI), we believe that while decarbonization is essential, it is not sufficient. India – and the planet – can no longer afford to wait for emissions to taper off over decades. We must act decisively. Climate interventions can no longer remain taboo. They must be part of our survival strategy.

Unfolding crisis: India on the frontline

Heatwaves are making vast stretches of India more dangerous to live in. 76% of the country’s population is at high risk from extreme heat. In May 2024, 37 cities across six states reported temperatures exceeding 45°C (113°F), with humidity driving real-feel temperatures above 55°C (131°F) in places.

About 90% of Indian homes lack air conditioning. A large portion of the workforce engages in physical labor – agriculture, construction, street vending – and is regularly exposed to the elements. When wet-bulb temperatures¹ exceed 35°C, even healthy people can die from heat stress, regardless of shade or hydration. By 2070, large parts of India may be too hot to live in.

Glacial melt in the Himalayas – Asia’s water tower – is another looming catastrophe. These glaciers feed ten major rivers that sustain nearly two billion people across Asia. As melt accelerates, we face floods, shifting river flows, and mounting water insecurity. Current trends spell disaster for agriculture, hydropower, and regional stability.

Sea-level rise is threatening coastal India. Around 250 million Indians live within 50 km of the sea and major cities like Mumbai, Kolkata, and Chennai face inundation risks by 2050. South Asia could see 40 million climate migrants by 2050. Globally, the number could reach 216 million – and potentially exceed 1 billion under worst-case scenarios. For perspective, the Syria Refugee Crisis – one of the world’s largest refugee crises – displaced about 14 million people since 2011. Imagine the global shock of a billion climate refugees.

Decarbonization alone won’t save us

Let’s be honest. Decarbonization is too slow. Global CO₂ emissions are still rising. India and China have pledged net zero by 2070 and 2060, respectively – far too late to avert near-term catastrophes. According to renowned climatologist Dr. James Hansen, we could breach 2°C of warming by the 2040s.

Even below 1.5°C of warming, we’re witnessing unprecedented disasters. At 2°C and beyond, the risk escalates to irreversible chaos – ecosystem collapse, water conflicts, and mass migration. That’s why HCI calls for:

1. Deep, rapid decarbonization.
2. Immediate deployment of local interventions – like surface albedo enhancement – to shield vulnerable communities from extreme heat.
3. Accelerated research and preparedness for large-scale solar radiation management (SRM) technologies – such as marine cloud brightening (MCB) and stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) – with the potential to slow planetary warming.

Climate interventions: buying time, saving lives

Earth is now absorbing the heat equivalent of 750,000 Hiroshima bombs every day,² and this is increasing. This is unsustainable. India – and many other countries – do not have the luxury of waiting. Strategic interventions to cool – both localized and planetary – could reduce harm and buy time.

Some of these tools could help tackle local warming and are available now. Reflective white paints and mirrors, such as MEER, on rooftops can substantially reduce local temperatures. Scalable, affordable, and safe – these inventions can protect those without air conditioning and reduce energy use where cooling systems exist.

Other ideas are farther off, requiring more research and development, and new governance arrangements, but they hold immense potential.

• Glacier preservation, like our pilot project with IIT Indore and the Bright Ice Initiative, involves placing reflective covers on key Himalayan glaciers. This can slow glacial melt and help sustain downstream water supplies.
• Marine cloud brightening (MCB): Spraying sea-salt particles into low clouds to enhance their reflectivity. This could cool coastal areas around India and may help blunt cyclone intensity.
• Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI): Releasing aerosols like sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to reflect sunlight. SAI could temporarily lower global temperatures in emergency scenarios. While not a long-term fix, SAI may become necessary in extreme situations to avert mass mortality in a dangerously warming world.

We recognize the risks. Climate interventions must be guided by solid science, community engagement, and proper governance. It will take years to responsibly develop scalable, safe solutions, but we cannot wait to begin that work during a crisis. The alternative – unilateral deployment by desperate nations – is far more dangerous.

From Parliament to the People: building climate momentum

HCI is not just theorizing – we’re mobilizing. Our mission is to regenerate a healthy climate and build resilience across India.

By 2030, we aim to help shape a comprehensive National Cooling Plan that includes climate interventions backed by sufficient funding for research and development, public awareness, and implementation.

We have launched a Climate Awareness Campaign, empowering people to engage in climate action and create thousands of informed climate advocates across India who can demand bold policy from below. This includes climate workshops focused on interventions, biweekly webinars, and climate marches across India, bringing together scientists, policymakers, students, and civil society leaders.

We also support rewilding with Indigenous people – restoring forests, managing water systems, and reviving the rural economy.

The time is now

India’s climate emergency is not a distant threat. It’s a lived reality for millions. Without urgent interventions, we face rising death tolls, economic collapse, and a humanitarian crisis on a scale the world is not prepared to handle.

At HCI, we may be a small team – but we are powered by a big vision: to cool the planet, protect the vulnerable, and make the future safer for generations to come.

This is India’s tipping point. The choices we make now will shape not just our national destiny, but humanity’s future.