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CO2 emissions drive warming

There is a linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and rising global temperature that holds in historic observations and model projections. Scientists’ best guess is that the planet will stop warming once CO2 emissions reach net-zero.

Faster emissions cuts

Slower emissions cuts

Global temperature change

1

2

3

4

5 TtCO2

+3.0°C

2100

Emissions continue

2.5

2.0

2070

Reaches net zero emissions

1.5

2020

1.0

2000

1950

0.5

1900

Cumulative CO2 emissions

Note: 1 Tt equals 1 trillion tonnes

Source: SRM360 analysis using the FaIR model and RCMIP data

Faster emissions cuts

Slower emissions cuts

Global temperature change

5 TtCO2

3

4

1

2

2100

Emissions continue

+3.0°C

2.5

2.0

2070

Reaches net zero emissions

1.5

2020

1.0

2000

1950

0.5

1900

Cumulative CO2 emissions

Note: 1 Tt equals 1 trillion tonnes

Source: SRM360 analysis using the FaIR model and RCMIP data

Published April 14, 2025
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SRM360 (2025) – "CO2 emissions drive warming" [Infographic]. Published online at SRM360.org. Retrieved from: 'https://srm360.org/infographic/co2-emissions-drive-warming/' [Online Resource]

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